Agriculture and Climate Change: The Copenhagen Agenda
Influential voices in the international agriculture community are calling for agriculture to be put on the negotiating agenda of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December (see e.g., IFPRI and FAO). The linkages between agriculture and climate change are clear. Climate change will impact where, when and how food is produced. For developing countries, a substantial share of the expected economic impact of climate change is attributable to declining agricultural production. Consequently, agriculture needs to be a primary consideration in adaptation to climate change. Agriculture also has the potential to contribute to mitigation of climate change through both emissions reduction and carbon sequestration. It has been estimated that 74% of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector originates in developing countries. Similarly, 70% of the mitigation potential in the agricultural sector can be realized in developing countries, primarily through soil carbon sequestration.
How might agriculture be incorporated into the Copenhagen agenda? The commitments in the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol include emission reduction targets, market mechanisms to facilitate achieving the emissions targets, and an adaptation fund to assist developing countries. The scope and nature of the post-Kyoto regime to be negotiated in Copenhagen is still unclear, but it will undoubtedly incorporate these three elements in some form. Emissions targets have not been sector specific, so there is no distinctive role for agriculture in discussions on new emissions targets. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the market mechanisms largely exclude agriculture; under a new or revised regime agricultural activities could be allowed to generate credits or offsets under the market mechanisms. The adaptation fund is one area within the current framework in which agricultural projects and programs are included, but the level of financial assistance available for adaptation in the agricultural sector is likely to be an issue in Copenhagen.
In recent comments to the Committee on Sustainable Development, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer identified “new, sufficient and predictable financing for NAMAs (nationally appropriate mitigation actions) and adaptation” as an important agriculture-related issue for discussion in Copenhagen. According to FAO Assistant Director-General Alexander Mueller, financing and incentive schemes are necessary to realize the mitigation potential of agriculture in developing countries, along with the measurement, reporting and verification methodologies upon which such schemes depend. It appears, therefore, that including agriculture in the Copenhagen agenda will largely involve a discussion of how to finance mitigation and adaptation for the agricultural sector in developing countries.
Compared to the scope and complexity of the climate change-agriculture nexus, the Copenhagen agenda is limited. The UNFCCC, as the premier global forum on climate change, can draw the world’s attention to the relationship between climate change and agriculture, and would be remiss in not doing so. Through the inclusion of agricultural sector activities in the market mechanisms it can also provide incentives and financing for the investments necessary to improve food security in the face of climate change. However, a broad range of issues in the climate change-agriculture nexus will have to be addressed outside of the UNFCCC framework. Nor can the UNFCCC be the sole or even the largest source of financing for mitigation and adaptation in the agricultural sector. What we can hope for in Copenhagen is a stamp of legitimacy for the critical role of agriculture and food security in the global response to climate change.
